Recent occurrences, many of which many Nigerians would identify with, have led me to reach an arguably inevitable conclusion: Nigeria is a country on an unarrestable decline.
BY IDOWU OHIOZEMAY 13, 2016
Recent occurrences, many of which many Nigerians would identify with, have led me to reach an arguably inevitable conclusion: Nigeria is a country on an unarrestable decline.
You may or may not share my rather pessimistic opinion depending on your ethnic or political affiliation or religious persuasion since most Nigerians are easily given to assessing public policies and socio-political trends on destructively bias yardsticks namely –and in order of subjective preference - the ethnicity, religious or political origins of the principal protagonists.
My conclusion is the outcome of a deductive reasoning that is based on an analysis of the essentials that impede national progress or are known to have orchestrated the demise of known ancient empires and nation-states.
In the following short essays on a range of issues, I make, hopefully, a string of compelling arguments to support my hypothesis of a disappearing political construct.
The genie is out of the bottle. We just have to figure out how the demise of Nigeria will affect us as individuals.
A Killing Field?
If you consider that the emergence of Boko Haram insurgency was sadly the failure of government at each level in Nigeria, you certainly should be alarmed that cattle rearers are wrecking havoc in parts of Nigeria unchallenged by the government.
Confrontations between landowners and heavily armed nomadic cattle rearers have resulted in numerous deaths in Benue, Enugu and other parts of Nigeria but the closest to a government response has been a tepid statement by Lai Mohammed, the federal minister of information.
Rumour of the presence, at the National Assembly, of a draft grazing bill with equally rumoured provisions for statutorily delineated grazing lands within states, has so far been denied by some legislators but the question of Nigerians’ age-long vulnerability within its borders has been brought to the forefront of the debate by the wanton destruction of lives and properties by individuals who are, disturbingly, above the law.
Some state governors have vowed to resist cattle rearers within their territories. In fact, in the south-east, a governor has hinted at resuscitating and re-arming the dreaded Bakassi boys in defence of the citizens of his state against terrorizing cattle herders. As it is commonly the level to which such matters of dire consequences degenerate to in Nigeria, some ethnicists – among them the influential Sultan of Sokoto and Senator Godswill Akpabio – promptly disclaim the erring cattle rearers as Nigerian Fulanis but foreigners from bordering countries.
This raises 3 questions: why does the nationality of criminals matter in this context since a court’s jurisdiction isn't defined by the citizenship of parties before it? How is it that foreign herdsmen can enter Nigeria with arms unchallenged by authorities for clear breach of immigration and criminal laws in light of the fact that these are not individuals who are normally not able to travel under the radar for far too long? And how were those who publicly attest to the nationality of the criminals able to determine it since none of the offenders has been apprehended and interviewed by the authorities?
During my time at the University of Benin, it was common occurrence for students and staff to attempt to dodge with dexterity heaps of animal wastes left strewing around the campus by herded cattle. Their handlers invaded every available green space there was, including faculty grounds.
Those were the days stick-wielding Fulani herdsmen went about destroying people’s crops unaccosted. Times have changed – owners of forcibly conscripted grazing lands now attached more value to their properties and the marauding intruders are now better armed with far more than a little stick and a dagger.
One now wonders how a clash between armed herders and students would turn out. Laxity in security at student hostels is well documented, and the OAU student massacre in the 90s readily comes to mind.
Do we need the slaughtering of slumbering students to arouse more than a passive interest in the government since the mass murders in Enugu and Benue didn't move authorities to act decisively on this matter of national significance?
You are probably concerned about the fate of your folks in your village should the armed cattle herdsmen show up there. As their access to grazing spaces shrink, other unprotected villages must prepare for their eventual unannounced arrival.
What does this potential clash of heavily armed herdsmen with equally armed or defenseless villagers portend for Nigerians?
Isn’t it logical to conclude that Nigeria is on a dangerous, perilous path to destruction if the grazing bill, assuming one exist, is passed in its rumoured state or the conflict between herders and landowners continues unabated?
Issues in (De)regulation
You must have heard of the deregulation debate before in Nigeria. It isn’t new to even passive watchers of events in Nigeria.
What is new, however, is that with the Buhari government’s announcement of the deregulation of the downstream sector comes the ceiling of the price of a litre of petrol.
As I understand it, there isn’t such a thing as a partial deregulation of a sector or industry. Which is why the introduction of price ceiling is confounding.
To be clear, the deregulation of the downstream sector of our energy industry wouldn't cause the disintegration of Nigeria. But this mismatch of policies could have the unintended consequence of further impoverishing ordinary Nigerians which can only be a recipe for disaster.
If you consider that a basket of tomatoes currently sells for N50,000, a heap of 3 tomatoes for N500 and one tomato ball for N100 in some parts of Nigeria at a time the government has pegged a litre of petrol at N87.50 but end-users actually pay more for it, you have got to ask what will happen when retailers begin to sell at the top price of N145.
It may well be that N145 may not be enough incentive for most importers of the product, thereby further worsening the present scarcity of the essential product.
Why is there a price ceiling at the same time as the removal of regulation which engenders competition among market players that ultimately leads to a reduction in price? Why is the interplay of demand and supply not allowed to determine the price of the commodity in a deregulated industry?
The government may have lost the advantages deregulation necessarily brings to an economy by this semi-deregulation of a sort.
Anyone who has recently bought any item in the marketplace in Nigeria will readily attest that the average pepper seller cites the exchange rate of the naira to the dollar as well as the price of petrol as the reasons for the astronomical increase in commodity prices.
We all know that there is no direct correlation between prevailing exchange rate and the price of tomato, but Nigeria’s shylock merchants are known to seize any opportunity to deplete the average Nigerian’s disposable income.
There is the story of a Suya buyer who, upon being presented with ready-to-be wrapped suya containing only sliced onions, sought to know why sliced tomato wasn't added. The long-suffering mai-suya calmly told him that he was offered one tomato at N100 in the market which he promptly refused to buy. If you want some sliced tomatoes for your suya, you will have to cough out N100!
Add the rising cost of tomato to that of electricity, garri, mass transportation, petrol, kerosene, including the devaluation of the Naira and you will appreciate the compounding of the problems of already stretched Nigerian John and Jane Doe. Past high levels of kidnappings and robberies will soon be child play compared to what is to come should a multitude of Nigerians continue to be rendered economically useless by government policies.
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More Universities, Diminishing Quality of Output
Mallam Adamu Adamu, Nigeria’s federal minister of education, recently announced the establishment of six new universities of science and technology. In his announcement, Adamu referenced the fact that one million Nigerians recently sat for the JAMB university admission examination in a country where there are only 150,000 available undergraduate spots.
Accessibility to university education, he claims, is the major consideration for the introduction of six more universities just 5 years after Goodluck Jonathan’s regime created 12 new federal universities that are definitely being underfunded and mismanaged.
But access to university education is actually beside the issue.
Take for example Edo State. Adam Oshiomhole, its governor, has just secured approval from the NUC to establish a state university in Iyamho his village. The location of the new university isn’t the issue here. But Iyamho is only a few minutes’ drive from Auchi and, on a motorable road, less than an hour drive to Ekpoma, two cities with a federal polytechnic and a state-owned university respectively.
Edo is one of the most resourced states in Nigeria regarding post-secondary institutions, so a new university isn’t really necessary considering its comparably small population. There is the University of Benin, Ambrose Alli University, Federal Polytechnic, Auchi, Igbinedion University, Benson Idahosa University, University of Education, Ekiadolor, etc.
Yet the governor considered it of utmost importance to splash the scarce resources of the state on a new university that is certainly in close physical proximity to 2 other established post-secondary institutions in the state.
His mindset had to be political: the location of a state institution in his village is a political give back to his people less than a year to the end of his 2-term tenure.
If this mindset continues to dominate decision making in Nigeria, soon many pidgin English speaking okada and keke napep riders would end up with university degrees that are both worthless to them and the economy.
Education for all – a popular global mantra - must not translate into university degree for all. This isn’t a bourgeois viewpoint but a desperate sounding of the alarm that Nigeria is overproducing half-baked university graduates who have low to zero employability rating and whose skills and level of acquired knowledge are sadly beneath those of high school graduates in Finland, Japan, the US, Canada and the UK!
A country that aspires to be great must prioritize education.
Nigerians consider university education as the only means to employment, but a college education is not known to increase a nation's economic productivity greatly. The global economy is being, and will continue to be, steered towards a digital information age which will be powered by science and technology certificates.
And Nigeria already has an abundance of science and technology-focused federal and state universities and polytechnics which, interestingly, Nigerians is less inclined to attend because of the unequal treatment by the government of degree and HND holders.
The minister of education must first arrest the poor quality of course curriculum and poor pedagogical skills of university lecturers. Accessibility to university isn’t the problem plaguing the school system. The country needs a culturally-sensitive but economically relevant modern educational system.
The state of education in Nigeria is laid bare by the crowd of Nigerian families who send their wards to study abroad. The low quality of output, and not inaccessibility, is the greatest disincentive to studying in Nigeria.
The quality of a service isn’t enhanced through multiplicity or over-extension of that service. Enforced scarcity (of university degrees) could, perhaps, yield a higher quality of output for all stakeholders.
As things stand, the educational system is in decline. Just read some gut-wrenching poorly written postings by Nigerian graduates on social media sites. A check will convince you that more universities equal lower standard, at least in Nigeria’s case.
Corruption Everywhere
It is no more breaking news that David Cameron, the UK’s prime minister, called Nigeria “fantastically corrupt.” In a rare show of nationalist fervour, many Nigerians raised more than an eyebrow at his comments. These ever so fleeting ‘patriotic’ Nigerians could be classified as those who prefer to drive away the proverbial hawk before remonstrating with the bounds-exceeding hen.
The Iuleha people in Edo State – of which I am one – have a saying that goes: if you neglect to wipe your mouth after a meal, you will suffer the indignity of being reminded, by a stranger, of the presence of a modicum of melon soup on your cheek.
Isn’t it a fact that thieving Nigerians continue to stash monies stolen from Nigeria in foreign banks, including the UK’s? You probably haven’t heard of the Nigerian senator who, some years back, allegedly stormed Calgary, Canada with money enough to buy 50 houses!
Or isn’t it true that over $21 billions of our commonwealth was shared by Goodluck Jonathan’s lieutenants under the watchful eyes of Africa’s first supremely empowered coordinating minster of the economy who happens to have previously headed the World bank?
Have you asked why is it that despite several bank executives having been arrested by the EFCC, and are currently repaying huge sums of money that were allegedly illicitly laundered overseas through their banks for the country’s former petroleum minister cum president #3 (re: former president Olusegun Obasanjo’s characterisation), the boards of the implicated banks have failed to resign and the governor of the CBN who superintended the unlawful acts has ostensibly warmed his way into president Buhari’s heart and still retains his job?
What ever happened to Raymond Dokpesi’s corruption case? Is there any chance that Sambo Dasuki’s trial will conclude in 4 years or will fugitive Joshua Dariye ever relocate back to Nigeria from the UK to face trial for stealing Plateau citizens’ money?
Some Nigerian judges are filthy wealthy through dintless receipt of kickbacks to throw court cases, injunctions and the sort.
On arrival at Muritala Mohammed Airport, one is immediately confronted with the mess that Nigeria has become. There are those who say things have improved in that space but I don’t know of any country that is besieged by internal insecurity and yet permits that high number of hustlers who sell everything from Nollywood DVDs to padlocks to departing and arriving airline passengers.
Try obtaining a Nigerian passport or renewing your driver’s license or securing a police clearance certificate at Ikoyi, and you will have to ‘drop something’, on top of the unofficial fee that almost every Nigerian pays for public service, to get through.
My 82-year-old father’s name suddenly disappeared from the federal government’s pensioners’ list more than four years ago, after 35 years of working for the government. He hasn’t been receiving his monthly pension since then, but no government office can explain why a living pensioner’s name was suddenly taken off the record.
Some director in the government’s pension office has agreed to assist me to unravel this dilemma fuelled in part, I think, by his respect for a former classmate of his who connected me to him. He has, however, advised that we should forget about reclaiming the four years’ worth of unpaid pension that the locust has eaten. Who is this locust? A foreigner from Niger, Chad or one from out of space?
Haven’t you noticed that no one gives you change again in Nigeria? Send a lad, with N500, to go buy you something that is worth far less and you wouldn’t receive change. ‘Ah bros, the mama say make I con collect change later’, he will tell you in Pidgin English, and there goes your money.
How come Nigerians are offended by David Cameron’s statement of true facts when in fact they are not scandalized by the obscene display of unearned wealth by Dino Melaye, one of Nigeria’s lunatic lawmakers, and his ilk?
Do you really think that an economy that has bled billions of dollars through corruption within the period that Jonathan ruled would really survive the drought of resources that is before us?
How many states are really financially solvent? Shouldn’t Osun and the many states that received federal bailouts only to divert corruptly the money be allowed to go bankrupt so that we will be rid of these rent seekers of politicians and their hangers-on?
Nigeria is under a new management; only that an old wine was simply poured into a new bottle.
Goodbye to a country that was.
To be continued …
Idowu Ohioze can be reached via idowuohioze@gmail.com.
After months of insisting that he had no plans to devalue the naira, President Muhammadu Buhari has caved to pressure to change course; SaharaReporters has learned from an exclusive briefing by a few top aides of the president.
BY SAHARAREPORTERS, NEW YORKMAY 13, 2016
After months of insisting that he had no plans to devalue the naira, President Muhammadu Buhari has caved to pressure to change course; SaharaReporters has learned from an exclusive briefing by a few top aides of the president.
A day after the Buhari administration increased the price of the pump price of fuel by 67%, from N86.5 to N145 a liter, our sources disclosed that Mr. Buhari has also agreed to demands by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that he significantly devalues the Nigerian currency. Our sources indicated that the naira would be pegged at N290 to one dollar. The current official rate is about N200 to a dollar.
Our sources said Mr. Buhari and his economic team took the decision to accept the IMF’s terms for funds that the Nigerian government wants to access to bridge a critical shortfall in revenue occasioned by a drastic decline in oil revenues. An administration insider told SaharaReporters that Nigeria could receive as much as $3 billion in credit facilities from the IMF.
“The truth is that Nigeria cannot operate without sourcing credit from the IMF,” said one of our sources, an economic adviser to Mr. Buhari, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “And the IMF was adamant that we must devalue before they can discuss extending credit to us,” he added.
Curiously, administration officials took the decision to devalue the naira without the input of the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele, another source revealed. An official of the CBN confirmed to Saharareporters that bank executives were kept in the dark about the discussions that led to the Buhari administration’s decision to devalue the naira. “Some of us here [the CBN] are not opposed to devaluation, given our country’s present circumstances,” the source said, adding that it was the CBN’s function to pilot Nigeria’s monetary policies.
One of our sources pointed to the fact that the naira has been weakened in the parallel market, where it now sells at N360 per dollar. “The government cannot continue to operate under the illusion that the naira is stronger than it is. The only problem is that we did not start early enough to admit to Nigerians how bad the financial outlook was,” the source added.
The Nigerian economy has been pummeled by falling oil earnings that have led to a near collapse of the economy. The IMF had long indicated its readiness to support Nigeria’s economy with credit liquidity but insisted on Nigeria devaluing its currency. President Buhari had insisted on numerous occasions, before and after his election, that he would never devalue the naira.
It is unclear how Mr. Buhari and members of his economic team plan to justify the about-turn on devaluation and other policy somersaults. After initially vowing to reduce the price of fuel, the government yesterday announced a significant hike in fuel price. The administration also set to announce a 10% increase in value-added tax (VAT), another indication that the Buhari government was embracing the kind of liberalization pushed by the IMF.
To compound dwindling oil prices, militants in the oil-rich Niger Delta region have crippled oil exports substantially after bombing oil pipelines and issuing threats to oil companies to leave the region.
Last week, several oil companies evacuated essential staff from the region’s offshore platform leading to a reduction in daily oil outputs from 2.2 million barrels a day to 1.3 million barrels a day.
